4th & Model

NFL

2026 preview coming soon

Schedule, scores, and historical EPA/PROE for every NFL season since 2010. Game-by-game predictions, Super Bowl odds, division championship probabilities, and over/under win totals land for the 2026 season as soon as nflverse publishes the schedule.

2026 season preview — loading once schedule lands

The NFL released the 2026 schedule on May 1. nflverse publishes schedule data within a few days; we re-pull it weekly. The moment it's available we run a 50,000-game Monte Carlo simulation and produce:

  • Per-team projected wins + over/under % vs Vegas total
  • Division championship probabilities
  • Conference championship + Super Bowl probabilities
  • Game-by-game spread / total / win-prob predictions

Model is a Ridge + XGBoost ensemble trained on 20102024 (16 seasons / 4,000+ games).

Schedule
Browse 2010-2025 by season + week
Teams
32 franchises with EPA history
Methodology
How the models are built + backtested